1 00:00:09,030 --> 00:00:07,190 i want to thank and alyssa and i want to 2 00:00:11,430 --> 00:00:09,040 thank everyone for coming 3 00:00:13,589 --> 00:00:11,440 um this is um 4 00:00:15,430 --> 00:00:13,599 i think this is an important topic 5 00:00:17,510 --> 00:00:15,440 um and so i hope it i hope it's 6 00:00:19,349 --> 00:00:17,520 interesting and i hope uh um you know we 7 00:00:20,630 --> 00:00:19,359 can we can share some thoughts and ideas 8 00:00:22,550 --> 00:00:20,640 about it 9 00:00:27,029 --> 00:00:22,560 so um 10 00:00:30,870 --> 00:00:27,039 david hume let's see oops david hume um 11 00:00:34,150 --> 00:00:30,880 wrote an essay called of miracles 12 00:00:36,389 --> 00:00:34,160 and in this essay he basically defined a 13 00:00:38,470 --> 00:00:36,399 miracle and his term is a violation of 14 00:00:41,750 --> 00:00:38,480 the laws of nature 15 00:00:43,270 --> 00:00:41,760 and um basically hume was an empiricist 16 00:00:45,270 --> 00:00:43,280 in the sense that he believed that 17 00:00:47,510 --> 00:00:45,280 experience was really 18 00:00:50,150 --> 00:00:47,520 um how it was our fundamental way of 19 00:00:52,150 --> 00:00:50,160 determining reality so whenever we 20 00:00:54,869 --> 00:00:52,160 removed ourselves from experience that 21 00:00:57,910 --> 00:00:54,879 that is had to rely on testimony for 22 00:00:59,750 --> 00:00:57,920 hume that was kind of a step down okay 23 00:01:03,189 --> 00:00:59,760 now his argument 24 00:01:05,990 --> 00:01:03,199 um of miracles um could be sort of 25 00:01:08,789 --> 00:01:06,000 summarized sort of in 26 00:01:10,789 --> 00:01:08,799 it's basically an attack against 27 00:01:13,270 --> 00:01:10,799 um or basically it focuses on the 28 00:01:16,070 --> 00:01:13,280 reliability unreliability of human 29 00:01:17,270 --> 00:01:16,080 testimony especially regarding religious 30 00:01:22,310 --> 00:01:17,280 miracles 31 00:01:24,950 --> 00:01:22,320 events that are extremely rare 32 00:01:29,190 --> 00:01:24,960 they have a tendency to sort of invoke a 33 00:01:31,590 --> 00:01:29,200 kind of passion and wonder which um 34 00:01:33,749 --> 00:01:31,600 which i think for hume disengages us 35 00:01:36,149 --> 00:01:33,759 from our critical faculties 36 00:01:37,990 --> 00:01:36,159 and miracles tended to happen or to 37 00:01:39,590 --> 00:01:38,000 occur in remote places where there were 38 00:01:41,429 --> 00:01:39,600 a few witnesses 39 00:01:44,950 --> 00:01:41,439 and him also noticed that throughout 40 00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:44,960 time um you know men have been dishonest 41 00:01:49,990 --> 00:01:47,600 have had tendency to exaggerate things 42 00:01:51,830 --> 00:01:50,000 perhaps um to kind of you know get 43 00:01:52,870 --> 00:01:51,840 listeners maybe even to get a sense of 44 00:01:56,630 --> 00:01:52,880 power 45 00:01:59,030 --> 00:01:56,640 so um all of this um meant for him that 46 00:02:00,149 --> 00:01:59,040 the probabilities associated with a 47 00:02:02,469 --> 00:02:00,159 miracle 48 00:02:05,109 --> 00:02:02,479 um or that is as such with the with the 49 00:02:06,789 --> 00:02:05,119 testimony regarding miracle is always 50 00:02:09,109 --> 00:02:06,799 going to be substantially smaller than 51 00:02:11,270 --> 00:02:09,119 the probability associated with what he 52 00:02:13,270 --> 00:02:11,280 would call reliable testimony which is 53 00:02:15,510 --> 00:02:13,280 basically the kind of testimony that 54 00:02:17,110 --> 00:02:15,520 we're familiar with testimony that's 55 00:02:20,790 --> 00:02:17,120 actually very congruent with our 56 00:02:25,110 --> 00:02:20,800 day-to-day experience so for for hume we 57 00:02:27,990 --> 00:02:25,120 should never accept a miracle okay now 58 00:02:29,910 --> 00:02:28,000 as i'm going to talk about um the the 59 00:02:31,589 --> 00:02:29,920 psych critics have a tendency to sort of 60 00:02:33,589 --> 00:02:31,599 employ this 61 00:02:35,670 --> 00:02:33,599 argument um throughout 62 00:02:37,990 --> 00:02:35,680 many of their arguments 63 00:02:39,750 --> 00:02:38,000 and it does a lot of heavy lifting so 64 00:02:42,790 --> 00:02:39,760 but before i get to that i want to just 65 00:02:44,470 --> 00:02:42,800 summarize um recently 66 00:02:47,910 --> 00:02:44,480 cardinia has 67 00:02:50,390 --> 00:02:47,920 provide presented a very um a very 68 00:02:51,830 --> 00:02:50,400 convenient summary of the meta-analysis 69 00:02:53,110 --> 00:02:51,840 of side data that has occurred in 70 00:02:55,509 --> 00:02:53,120 laboratories 71 00:02:58,550 --> 00:02:55,519 and this is not a conclusive but there's 72 00:03:01,110 --> 00:02:58,560 definitely a lot of material that has 73 00:03:04,390 --> 00:03:01,120 been sort of a different modes of size 74 00:03:06,309 --> 00:03:04,400 such as telepathy precognition remote 75 00:03:09,270 --> 00:03:06,319 viewing pre-sentiment 76 00:03:10,710 --> 00:03:09,280 and uh these studies have have become so 77 00:03:13,430 --> 00:03:10,720 numerous that they've actually been 78 00:03:15,270 --> 00:03:13,440 pooled into meta studies and as you can 79 00:03:17,350 --> 00:03:15,280 see this is uh sort of a 80 00:03:21,030 --> 00:03:17,360 shortened version of table one from his 81 00:03:23,110 --> 00:03:21,040 paper um there's oh there's over 800 82 00:03:24,630 --> 00:03:23,120 studies we're talking about that that 83 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:24,640 are the basis of all these different 84 00:03:30,309 --> 00:03:26,799 meta analysis 85 00:03:32,470 --> 00:03:30,319 and these have happened over decades um 86 00:03:34,149 --> 00:03:32,480 accumulated um 87 00:03:36,229 --> 00:03:34,159 and from different laboratories 88 00:03:38,550 --> 00:03:36,239 different different researchers and as 89 00:03:42,229 --> 00:03:38,560 you can see in the right hand column the 90 00:03:44,470 --> 00:03:42,239 the p values suggest that the um the ch 91 00:03:46,309 --> 00:03:44,480 the odds or the likelihood that these 92 00:03:48,149 --> 00:03:46,319 sort of effects could be due to chances 93 00:03:51,910 --> 00:03:48,159 just astronomically 94 00:03:54,229 --> 00:03:51,920 nil or negligible okay so um he also 95 00:03:56,390 --> 00:03:54,239 presents another table that has to do 96 00:03:58,830 --> 00:03:56,400 with anomalous perturbation or what most 97 00:04:01,830 --> 00:03:58,840 people i think would call 98 00:04:03,750 --> 00:04:01,840 psychokinesis there the p values are a 99 00:04:05,670 --> 00:04:03,760 bit smaller with the exception of roger 100 00:04:08,229 --> 00:04:05,680 nelson's uh global consciousness but 101 00:04:12,390 --> 00:04:08,239 still looks like there is across the 102 00:04:14,550 --> 00:04:12,400 board some significant level of 103 00:04:16,870 --> 00:04:14,560 mind matter interaction although some 104 00:04:19,110 --> 00:04:16,880 parapsychologists do inter do question 105 00:04:22,069 --> 00:04:19,120 the uh interpretation of that it looks 106 00:04:24,710 --> 00:04:22,079 like there's something um going on 107 00:04:26,230 --> 00:04:24,720 so um so now i want to get to reburn 108 00:04:29,189 --> 00:04:26,240 alcock's 109 00:04:31,270 --> 00:04:29,199 argument using hume although it's 110 00:04:33,270 --> 00:04:31,280 important to point out that hume's 111 00:04:35,909 --> 00:04:33,280 argument has has really been a kind of 112 00:04:37,189 --> 00:04:35,919 workhouse for the size skeptics um 113 00:04:39,430 --> 00:04:37,199 throughout through the throughout the 114 00:04:42,230 --> 00:04:39,440 decades of debate between uh psy 115 00:04:47,430 --> 00:04:42,240 skeptics and psy advocates um chuck 116 00:04:50,790 --> 00:04:47,440 onerton um mentioned um price's 1955 117 00:04:51,830 --> 00:04:50,800 critique of ryan's paper um in the paper 118 00:04:53,110 --> 00:04:51,840 price 119 00:04:58,390 --> 00:04:53,120 um 120 00:05:00,550 --> 00:04:58,400 has presented us with enough evidence to 121 00:05:02,950 --> 00:05:00,560 convince us that there is something 122 00:05:05,029 --> 00:05:02,960 going on along the lines of telepathy 123 00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:05,039 but then he acknowledges that david 124 00:05:10,629 --> 00:05:08,000 hume's argument by itself was sufficient 125 00:05:13,350 --> 00:05:10,639 to convince him that it had to be wrong 126 00:05:15,590 --> 00:05:13,360 and so occasionally um david hume's 127 00:05:16,710 --> 00:05:15,600 article argument is sort of popped up 128 00:05:20,070 --> 00:05:16,720 here and there 129 00:05:21,110 --> 00:05:20,080 um wagenmacher's attack on 130 00:05:24,150 --> 00:05:21,120 bim's 131 00:05:26,870 --> 00:05:24,160 precognition for example most recently 132 00:05:29,430 --> 00:05:26,880 rieber and alcock dismiss all the site 133 00:05:30,870 --> 00:05:29,440 evidence presented in cardenia 134 00:05:31,830 --> 00:05:30,880 so i'm just going to give you the bare 135 00:05:33,510 --> 00:05:31,840 bones 136 00:05:36,469 --> 00:05:33,520 of the argument there 137 00:05:39,189 --> 00:05:36,479 first of all rebar and alcock 138 00:05:41,670 --> 00:05:39,199 claim that the psy evidence violates 139 00:05:43,990 --> 00:05:41,680 important principles of established that 140 00:05:47,029 --> 00:05:44,000 are established in physics and they list 141 00:05:50,710 --> 00:05:47,039 these principles as um including 142 00:05:53,749 --> 00:05:50,720 no causal mechanism uh reverses 143 00:05:56,629 --> 00:05:53,759 cause and effect violates thermodynamics 144 00:05:57,430 --> 00:05:56,639 and violates inverse square laws okay 145 00:05:59,670 --> 00:05:57,440 now 146 00:06:02,469 --> 00:05:59,680 this is sufficient these violation of 147 00:06:04,870 --> 00:06:02,479 principles signifies a violation of 148 00:06:06,870 --> 00:06:04,880 natural laws and therefore they can 149 00:06:09,189 --> 00:06:06,880 invoke hume's argument that the site 150 00:06:12,070 --> 00:06:09,199 evidence must be classified as 151 00:06:14,710 --> 00:06:12,080 miraculous and therefore we must dismiss 152 00:06:17,430 --> 00:06:14,720 the site evidence no matter how much 153 00:06:20,309 --> 00:06:17,440 evidence accumulates so you can see 154 00:06:21,909 --> 00:06:20,319 uh hume's argument here is actually um 155 00:06:23,029 --> 00:06:21,919 kind of like doing some pretty heavy 156 00:06:23,909 --> 00:06:23,039 lifting 157 00:06:25,590 --> 00:06:23,919 and 158 00:06:28,150 --> 00:06:25,600 it raises an interesting sort of 159 00:06:30,469 --> 00:06:28,160 question philosophy of science because 160 00:06:33,270 --> 00:06:30,479 in science we usually sort of depend 161 00:06:35,350 --> 00:06:33,280 very heavily on evidence but if the 162 00:06:37,510 --> 00:06:35,360 evidence under some some circumstances 163 00:06:39,270 --> 00:06:37,520 can be swept away then we're sort of 164 00:06:40,390 --> 00:06:39,280 left kind of with this sort of 165 00:06:43,270 --> 00:06:40,400 interesting 166 00:06:44,870 --> 00:06:43,280 problem about what how how to tell when 167 00:06:46,469 --> 00:06:44,880 we're doing science and when we're not 168 00:06:47,430 --> 00:06:46,479 doing science and all kinds of 169 00:06:49,830 --> 00:06:47,440 interesting 170 00:06:50,710 --> 00:06:49,840 um questions come up 171 00:06:51,510 --> 00:06:50,720 okay 172 00:06:53,909 --> 00:06:51,520 so 173 00:06:55,749 --> 00:06:53,919 let's take let's let's remind ourselves 174 00:06:57,029 --> 00:06:55,759 though that hume's argument was 175 00:07:00,070 --> 00:06:57,039 primarily 176 00:07:01,670 --> 00:07:00,080 aimed at the at the sort of the faulty 177 00:07:04,230 --> 00:07:01,680 nature of religious 178 00:07:06,230 --> 00:07:04,240 testimony okay so what about how do we 179 00:07:08,070 --> 00:07:06,240 sort of transfer that kind of argument 180 00:07:10,870 --> 00:07:08,080 into the laboratory 181 00:07:12,950 --> 00:07:10,880 um that's something that the science 182 00:07:17,029 --> 00:07:12,960 skeptics don't really 183 00:07:19,589 --> 00:07:17,039 um pay a lot of attention to in my view 184 00:07:22,150 --> 00:07:19,599 there's a few other sort of problems too 185 00:07:24,629 --> 00:07:22,160 that i'll say a few more words about 186 00:07:26,550 --> 00:07:24,639 we can note that the evidence that they 187 00:07:29,510 --> 00:07:26,560 base these principles on the ones that i 188 00:07:31,189 --> 00:07:29,520 just went over are generally taken from 189 00:07:36,390 --> 00:07:31,199 physics 190 00:07:39,189 --> 00:07:36,400 science that we know a lot about but the 191 00:07:41,749 --> 00:07:39,199 psi data arguably might be a different 192 00:07:44,469 --> 00:07:41,759 set of data maybe maybe data that has to 193 00:07:46,309 --> 00:07:44,479 do with maybe consciousness of some kind 194 00:07:48,710 --> 00:07:46,319 maybe even quantum mechanics because a 195 00:07:50,550 --> 00:07:48,720 lot of the psychokinesis data does use 196 00:07:52,790 --> 00:07:50,560 random number generators that are based 197 00:07:54,869 --> 00:07:52,800 on principles of quantum mechanics 198 00:07:56,150 --> 00:07:54,879 and that raises another question of 199 00:07:59,029 --> 00:07:56,160 whether the psi 200 00:08:00,070 --> 00:07:59,039 might be characterized as miraculous or 201 00:08:02,629 --> 00:08:00,080 instead 202 00:08:05,510 --> 00:08:02,639 as anomalous in that in some sense that 203 00:08:08,070 --> 00:08:05,520 is real but just not fitting into our 204 00:08:11,189 --> 00:08:08,080 current understanding of uh the world 205 00:08:13,430 --> 00:08:11,199 okay perhaps there may be gaps remaining 206 00:08:15,350 --> 00:08:13,440 in our understanding of the world and if 207 00:08:18,629 --> 00:08:15,360 so could the side data fall into these 208 00:08:20,950 --> 00:08:18,639 gaps and perhaps give us some help us 209 00:08:23,510 --> 00:08:20,960 understand what's going on with some of 210 00:08:27,830 --> 00:08:23,520 these persistent um mysteries i guess 211 00:08:30,390 --> 00:08:27,840 you could call them okay um recently um 212 00:08:31,270 --> 00:08:30,400 i i found this critique of some of the 213 00:08:33,430 --> 00:08:31,280 psy 214 00:08:35,750 --> 00:08:33,440 data by sean carroll 215 00:08:37,509 --> 00:08:35,760 and uh he doesn't mention him but he's 216 00:08:39,829 --> 00:08:37,519 sort of another example of someone who's 217 00:08:41,029 --> 00:08:39,839 using an argument that's very similar in 218 00:08:42,949 --> 00:08:41,039 the sense that 219 00:08:45,990 --> 00:08:42,959 um you know that the side data seems to 220 00:08:48,949 --> 00:08:46,000 be so contrary to scientific principles 221 00:08:50,949 --> 00:08:48,959 as we know them that um 222 00:08:52,790 --> 00:08:50,959 that um you know it probably is very 223 00:08:54,630 --> 00:08:52,800 unlikely of course sean carroll is 224 00:08:56,870 --> 00:08:54,640 someone who advocates the many worlds 225 00:08:59,670 --> 00:08:56,880 which we find which is also kind of a 226 00:09:01,190 --> 00:08:59,680 radical claim which has zero evidence as 227 00:09:03,670 --> 00:09:01,200 far as i know 228 00:09:05,350 --> 00:09:03,680 and uh so it's kind of an interesting um 229 00:09:06,790 --> 00:09:05,360 position that he is where of sort of 230 00:09:08,470 --> 00:09:06,800 being a size skeptic but at the same 231 00:09:10,630 --> 00:09:08,480 time advocating something else that 232 00:09:12,790 --> 00:09:10,640 might arguably be that some might find 233 00:09:15,990 --> 00:09:12,800 to be kind of radical 234 00:09:19,430 --> 00:09:16,000 okay so um it turns out that hume does 235 00:09:21,670 --> 00:09:19,440 have in his uh um in his in his essay 236 00:09:24,070 --> 00:09:21,680 something that we can sort of like 237 00:09:25,910 --> 00:09:24,080 see is adaptable to the laboratory 238 00:09:27,030 --> 00:09:25,920 though and and rather than sort of read 239 00:09:28,949 --> 00:09:27,040 this to you 240 00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:28,959 um i'm just going to summarize basically 241 00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:30,880 the idea is that when we're doing 242 00:09:34,949 --> 00:09:33,360 experiments and observations we can sort 243 00:09:36,470 --> 00:09:34,959 of see that there's experiments that 244 00:09:37,990 --> 00:09:36,480 fall on one side 245 00:09:39,990 --> 00:09:38,000 and there's experiments that sort of 246 00:09:42,550 --> 00:09:40,000 have a different effect and we can sort 247 00:09:44,790 --> 00:09:42,560 of see a kind of the accumulation of 248 00:09:47,670 --> 00:09:44,800 experiments as being kind of a way of 249 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:47,680 weighing the two and if one side is 250 00:09:50,710 --> 00:09:49,120 let's say 251 00:09:52,389 --> 00:09:50,720 heavier if we think of a scale we can 252 00:09:54,790 --> 00:09:52,399 think of one side as being really a lot 253 00:09:57,350 --> 00:09:54,800 heavier than the other the the the 254 00:09:59,990 --> 00:09:57,360 degree that one is heavier or let's say 255 00:10:02,230 --> 00:10:00,000 has a much larger number gives a sense 256 00:10:04,630 --> 00:10:02,240 of what it's more likely really it's 257 00:10:06,630 --> 00:10:04,640 kind of a common sense way of the way we 258 00:10:09,430 --> 00:10:06,640 would think of of experiments but the 259 00:10:11,350 --> 00:10:09,440 important point here is that hume does 260 00:10:13,430 --> 00:10:11,360 seem to suggest that in a laboratory 261 00:10:15,430 --> 00:10:13,440 under controlled experience 262 00:10:17,670 --> 00:10:15,440 under controlled conditions 263 00:10:19,829 --> 00:10:17,680 that numbers do matter and we want to 264 00:10:21,030 --> 00:10:19,839 pay very close attention to you know how 265 00:10:25,269 --> 00:10:21,040 many 266 00:10:27,829 --> 00:10:25,279 we could 267 00:10:29,430 --> 00:10:27,839 get on one side versus another 268 00:10:31,670 --> 00:10:29,440 now it turns out 269 00:10:34,310 --> 00:10:31,680 though that having said that there is 270 00:10:36,870 --> 00:10:34,320 kind of a lifeline that hume's paper 271 00:10:39,110 --> 00:10:36,880 gives to the size skeptics and that is 272 00:10:41,350 --> 00:10:39,120 there is the possibility of 273 00:10:43,750 --> 00:10:41,360 fraud or some sort of questionable 274 00:10:45,190 --> 00:10:43,760 research practices going into the 275 00:10:47,670 --> 00:10:45,200 laboratory now 276 00:10:49,910 --> 00:10:47,680 it's it it was so while a lot of the 277 00:10:52,389 --> 00:10:49,920 problems that hume worried about are are 278 00:10:55,590 --> 00:10:52,399 sort of um not really applicable in a 279 00:10:57,269 --> 00:10:55,600 laboratory there this he does give us 280 00:10:59,430 --> 00:10:57,279 reason to think that there might be some 281 00:11:01,990 --> 00:10:59,440 dishonesty or some 282 00:11:03,750 --> 00:11:02,000 uh questionable practices okay 283 00:11:06,069 --> 00:11:03,760 so and it turns out there is 284 00:11:08,949 --> 00:11:06,079 historically speaking some evidence of 285 00:11:11,030 --> 00:11:08,959 fraud of fraud inside research 286 00:11:13,509 --> 00:11:11,040 walter levy and soul 287 00:11:15,829 --> 00:11:13,519 and uh um and these are the these are 288 00:11:18,069 --> 00:11:15,839 the prominent examples that usually are 289 00:11:20,870 --> 00:11:18,079 discussed um you know it's worth 290 00:11:23,350 --> 00:11:20,880 pointing out that the the the data here 291 00:11:26,790 --> 00:11:23,360 um is not included in the in the meta 292 00:11:28,949 --> 00:11:26,800 analysis it's also worth pointing out um 293 00:11:31,269 --> 00:11:28,959 that walter levy was actually discovered 294 00:11:33,910 --> 00:11:31,279 by other psy researchers 295 00:11:35,509 --> 00:11:33,920 um which is kind of interesting and uh 296 00:11:38,470 --> 00:11:35,519 it sort of i think goes to the point 297 00:11:41,190 --> 00:11:38,480 that the psy researchers do have a kind 298 00:11:43,030 --> 00:11:41,200 of cultural of vigilance that is trying 299 00:11:44,870 --> 00:11:43,040 to be on the lookout for anything that's 300 00:11:46,389 --> 00:11:44,880 not quite kosher 301 00:11:49,430 --> 00:11:46,399 um it's also worth pointing out that 302 00:11:50,949 --> 00:11:49,440 both of these paid very heavy prices um 303 00:11:53,509 --> 00:11:50,959 when the fraud was discovered although i 304 00:11:56,230 --> 00:11:53,519 think seoul was discovered after his uh 305 00:11:58,150 --> 00:11:56,240 after his passing but certainly it cast 306 00:11:59,910 --> 00:11:58,160 a shadow on all their research even 307 00:12:01,269 --> 00:11:59,920 research that had been 308 00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:01,279 perhaps 309 00:12:04,710 --> 00:12:03,519 not involved in any kind of fraud okay 310 00:12:07,269 --> 00:12:04,720 so 311 00:12:09,590 --> 00:12:07,279 is that sufficient to really just kind 312 00:12:11,829 --> 00:12:09,600 of say well okay some fraud has happened 313 00:12:14,069 --> 00:12:11,839 we should sort of like um 314 00:12:16,550 --> 00:12:14,079 well of course that's not really the way 315 00:12:19,990 --> 00:12:16,560 that science works in general fraud 316 00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:20,000 occurs we generally sort of don't um you 317 00:12:24,870 --> 00:12:22,880 know um toss out um you know various 318 00:12:26,389 --> 00:12:24,880 kinds of research that other people have 319 00:12:27,670 --> 00:12:26,399 done that might be similar if they 320 00:12:29,590 --> 00:12:27,680 haven't been 321 00:12:32,150 --> 00:12:29,600 um you know accused of fraud or actually 322 00:12:35,509 --> 00:12:32,160 haven't been established as having fraud 323 00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:35,519 so there is a literature on fraud um 324 00:12:39,990 --> 00:12:37,600 a survey and i'm not sure i'm going to 325 00:12:41,430 --> 00:12:40,000 pronounce his name right chavez's or 326 00:12:43,829 --> 00:12:41,440 luis 327 00:12:44,550 --> 00:12:43,839 found scientific fraud to be correlated 328 00:12:46,790 --> 00:12:44,560 with 329 00:12:49,190 --> 00:12:46,800 often prospects of job placement and 330 00:12:51,670 --> 00:12:49,200 academic prestige okay so you can sort 331 00:12:54,790 --> 00:12:51,680 of imagine the situation where someone 332 00:12:57,670 --> 00:12:54,800 wants to have a wants to maintain a a 333 00:12:59,829 --> 00:12:57,680 prestigious academic um position or 334 00:13:02,310 --> 00:12:59,839 wants to sort of be hired by a 335 00:13:04,949 --> 00:13:02,320 university and but just had doesn't have 336 00:13:06,870 --> 00:13:04,959 that publication or maybe a publication 337 00:13:08,949 --> 00:13:06,880 that has the right kind of finding and 338 00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:08,959 so there's a lot of there can be a lot 339 00:13:15,190 --> 00:13:12,240 of pressure to kind of uh sort of um 340 00:13:17,590 --> 00:13:15,200 maybe alter the results maybe 341 00:13:19,110 --> 00:13:17,600 they might even see benign to the to the 342 00:13:21,190 --> 00:13:19,120 person committing it 343 00:13:23,750 --> 00:13:21,200 but we can note that historically psy 344 00:13:24,550 --> 00:13:23,760 researchers have not improved their jobs 345 00:13:28,310 --> 00:13:24,560 um 346 00:13:30,550 --> 00:13:28,320 through through sign research okay so 347 00:13:32,710 --> 00:13:30,560 the the kind of motivations and 348 00:13:35,829 --> 00:13:32,720 incentives that have been associated 349 00:13:39,189 --> 00:13:35,839 with fraud in more let's say mainstream 350 00:13:41,509 --> 00:13:39,199 research are are not actually present 351 00:13:43,590 --> 00:13:41,519 and i've noticed and i've called 352 00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:43,600 attention the fact that people have 353 00:13:47,189 --> 00:13:46,240 committed fraud and psy you know paid a 354 00:13:49,269 --> 00:13:47,199 very 355 00:13:52,150 --> 00:13:49,279 large price it's not really clear that 356 00:13:54,069 --> 00:13:52,160 there's any kind of benefit um even 357 00:13:55,590 --> 00:13:54,079 let's say if you you talk about daryl 358 00:13:58,150 --> 00:13:55,600 bim i mean he had 359 00:13:59,509 --> 00:13:58,160 it got a lot of attention but um it's 360 00:14:01,509 --> 00:13:59,519 not really clear that in terms of 361 00:14:04,470 --> 00:14:01,519 prestige or certainly in terms of money 362 00:14:07,110 --> 00:14:04,480 that it really gave them you know 363 00:14:09,350 --> 00:14:07,120 gave him much so by so by and large we 364 00:14:10,790 --> 00:14:09,360 can notice that the incentives 365 00:14:12,710 --> 00:14:10,800 to to commit fraud in the psych 366 00:14:16,389 --> 00:14:12,720 committee are probably substantially 367 00:14:18,310 --> 00:14:16,399 less that would be my my view from uh um 368 00:14:20,550 --> 00:14:18,320 you know from from the data on the 369 00:14:23,829 --> 00:14:20,560 nature of fraud we can also notice that 370 00:14:25,030 --> 00:14:23,839 this kind of like um culture or or the 371 00:14:26,949 --> 00:14:25,040 historical 372 00:14:28,550 --> 00:14:26,959 um kind of uh um 373 00:14:31,590 --> 00:14:28,560 you know um 374 00:14:35,189 --> 00:14:31,600 pattern uh in in the sci community has 375 00:14:37,990 --> 00:14:35,199 led arguably to improvements in quality 376 00:14:41,189 --> 00:14:38,000 um cardinian cite studies that find the 377 00:14:42,870 --> 00:14:41,199 psi effects um do not diminish with 378 00:14:44,870 --> 00:14:42,880 variables representing 379 00:14:47,269 --> 00:14:44,880 quality good note that parapsychology 380 00:14:50,310 --> 00:14:47,279 journals have a tendency to encourage 381 00:14:52,310 --> 00:14:50,320 publication where no results of note are 382 00:14:54,550 --> 00:14:52,320 found or when the when the when the null 383 00:14:57,750 --> 00:14:54,560 is it can't be rejected 384 00:15:00,069 --> 00:14:57,760 shell drag found high quality um that 385 00:15:01,269 --> 00:15:00,079 the cy research had a tendency to 386 00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:01,279 um 387 00:15:06,310 --> 00:15:04,000 to to lead the way in high quality 388 00:15:08,150 --> 00:15:06,320 so um i'll go i'll say a little bit more 389 00:15:10,470 --> 00:15:08,160 just going to to history here there's 390 00:15:12,629 --> 00:15:10,480 there's the gansfeld method which i 391 00:15:13,430 --> 00:15:12,639 think many of you understand 392 00:15:19,430 --> 00:15:13,440 um 393 00:15:20,870 --> 00:15:19,440 pioneered by chuck onerton employed a 394 00:15:22,710 --> 00:15:20,880 noise reduction 395 00:15:24,949 --> 00:15:22,720 based on the idea that sensory 396 00:15:27,350 --> 00:15:24,959 deprivation heightens areas of 397 00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:27,360 consciousness more sensitive to side 398 00:15:32,230 --> 00:15:28,399 after 399 00:15:34,949 --> 00:15:32,240 28 gainsfield studies um honerton and 400 00:15:36,629 --> 00:15:34,959 hyman a psi critic 401 00:15:39,110 --> 00:15:36,639 collaborate and generate a set of 402 00:15:41,430 --> 00:15:39,120 protocols this of course is well known 403 00:15:42,550 --> 00:15:41,440 um eliminating sources of sensory 404 00:15:43,350 --> 00:15:42,560 linkage 405 00:15:45,430 --> 00:15:43,360 um 406 00:15:48,310 --> 00:15:45,440 pioneering automation of selection of 407 00:15:50,470 --> 00:15:48,320 images shown to the sender and so forth 408 00:15:53,030 --> 00:15:50,480 and the important point here is that you 409 00:15:56,389 --> 00:15:53,040 have sort of a this this collaboration 410 00:15:58,470 --> 00:15:56,399 really does suggest that um 411 00:16:00,949 --> 00:15:58,480 that is something different from 412 00:16:04,389 --> 00:16:00,959 what i think most sort of uh mainstream 413 00:16:06,550 --> 00:16:04,399 researchers um sort of endure to kind of 414 00:16:09,110 --> 00:16:06,560 improve kind of generate a very tight 415 00:16:11,350 --> 00:16:09,120 quality control and and and the results 416 00:16:13,350 --> 00:16:11,360 have been 108 studies which show you 417 00:16:15,590 --> 00:16:13,360 know highly significant with 418 00:16:18,710 --> 00:16:15,600 astronomically small um 419 00:16:21,350 --> 00:16:18,720 likelihood of chance okay now recently 420 00:16:22,710 --> 00:16:21,360 there have been some um psy researchers 421 00:16:24,710 --> 00:16:22,720 that have said look 422 00:16:27,189 --> 00:16:24,720 can we explain the gans build 423 00:16:29,350 --> 00:16:27,199 meta-analysis through some combination 424 00:16:32,470 --> 00:16:29,360 of questionable research practices and 425 00:16:35,189 --> 00:16:32,480 fraud occurring simultaneously and they 426 00:16:37,110 --> 00:16:35,199 borrowed the the sort of the levels of 427 00:16:38,470 --> 00:16:37,120 questionable research practices that 428 00:16:39,590 --> 00:16:38,480 have been sort of obtained through 429 00:16:42,629 --> 00:16:39,600 surveys 430 00:16:44,389 --> 00:16:42,639 in more mainstream um in mainstream 431 00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:44,399 areas of research 432 00:16:49,110 --> 00:16:46,320 but as i've noted you know given the 433 00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:49,120 ganzfeld's history it's probably a bit 434 00:16:51,990 --> 00:16:50,880 of a stretch to assume that the same 435 00:16:55,189 --> 00:16:52,000 level of 436 00:16:55,910 --> 00:16:55,199 qrps and fraud is other 437 00:16:57,829 --> 00:16:55,920 is 438 00:16:59,910 --> 00:16:57,839 that it's comparable it's probably a 439 00:17:02,069 --> 00:16:59,920 little bit of a stretch palmer's also 440 00:17:04,870 --> 00:17:02,079 criticized the number of uh assumptions 441 00:17:08,309 --> 00:17:04,880 that biermann and his co-authors uh 442 00:17:10,789 --> 00:17:08,319 found so so even with however that kind 443 00:17:11,590 --> 00:17:10,799 of questionable um sort of 444 00:17:13,189 --> 00:17:11,600 uh 445 00:17:15,750 --> 00:17:13,199 that questionable assumption about the 446 00:17:17,909 --> 00:17:15,760 levels of questionable practices they 447 00:17:19,829 --> 00:17:17,919 still could not account for the whole 448 00:17:23,189 --> 00:17:19,839 effect there's it although 449 00:17:25,669 --> 00:17:23,199 as as i pointed out the uh the p-value 450 00:17:28,270 --> 00:17:25,679 is smaller than 10 to the minus 16. they 451 00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:28,280 were able to drop it quite a bit to 452 00:17:33,990 --> 00:17:31,200 .005 but still there seems to be a very 453 00:17:35,990 --> 00:17:34,000 substantial sort of real effect 454 00:17:38,630 --> 00:17:36,000 and then if we sort of go back 455 00:17:41,590 --> 00:17:38,640 um maybe i should just you know like if 456 00:17:44,150 --> 00:17:41,600 i can do this quickly um if you can sort 457 00:17:47,990 --> 00:17:44,160 of imagine doing a similar exercise 458 00:17:49,830 --> 00:17:48,000 where you sort of plug in qrps um to all 459 00:17:51,510 --> 00:17:49,840 of these and sort of like what are you 460 00:17:54,070 --> 00:17:51,520 gonna find well it looks like you you 461 00:17:56,470 --> 00:17:54,080 probably end up with a sort of a joint 462 00:17:58,549 --> 00:17:56,480 p-value that is still astronomically 463 00:18:00,390 --> 00:17:58,559 small i mean the likelihood that all of 464 00:18:02,789 --> 00:18:00,400 these even if you have something on the 465 00:18:03,669 --> 00:18:02,799 level of p equals 0.05 you so if you 466 00:18:05,990 --> 00:18:03,679 sort of 467 00:18:08,950 --> 00:18:06,000 bring all of those and ask yourself well 468 00:18:11,669 --> 00:18:08,960 what is the likelihood that all of these 469 00:18:13,350 --> 00:18:11,679 data are generated by some sort of like 470 00:18:15,669 --> 00:18:13,360 combination of fraud and questionable 471 00:18:17,430 --> 00:18:15,679 research practices it seems like we're 472 00:18:20,630 --> 00:18:17,440 still kind of stuck in this very 473 00:18:22,390 --> 00:18:20,640 extremely unlikely kind of uh 474 00:18:24,070 --> 00:18:22,400 kind of situation 475 00:18:26,230 --> 00:18:24,080 so um now 476 00:18:28,470 --> 00:18:26,240 doug stokes um is someone who said wait 477 00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:28,480 a minute maybe there's just fraud across 478 00:18:31,350 --> 00:18:30,160 the board maybe there's even some sort 479 00:18:33,830 --> 00:18:31,360 of 480 00:18:35,909 --> 00:18:33,840 coordination between researchers so it 481 00:18:38,470 --> 00:18:35,919 almost seems like we have to go down the 482 00:18:41,430 --> 00:18:38,480 road of maybe considering a conspiracy 483 00:18:43,669 --> 00:18:41,440 theory usually scientists sort of roll 484 00:18:45,750 --> 00:18:43,679 their eyes at this point and say well 485 00:18:48,150 --> 00:18:45,760 you know we general conspiracy theories 486 00:18:51,190 --> 00:18:48,160 are just inherently unlikely in the 487 00:18:54,070 --> 00:18:51,200 extreme in this case remember that would 488 00:18:56,150 --> 00:18:54,080 mean you would have various um 489 00:18:59,110 --> 00:18:56,160 researchers somehow able to sort of 490 00:19:02,150 --> 00:18:59,120 maintain a coordination and silence of 491 00:19:04,870 --> 00:19:02,160 some kind of fraud over decades and 492 00:19:06,710 --> 00:19:04,880 exactly what are the benefits from doing 493 00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:06,720 that it's just not really clear but we 494 00:19:11,510 --> 00:19:09,200 also know that it would sort of be 495 00:19:13,430 --> 00:19:11,520 catastrophic um in terms of people's 496 00:19:16,070 --> 00:19:13,440 reputations so there would be a huge 497 00:19:18,150 --> 00:19:16,080 cost so all the all the answers really 498 00:19:20,230 --> 00:19:18,160 all the when we take a hard look at 499 00:19:23,190 --> 00:19:20,240 fraud it really seems inherently 500 00:19:24,870 --> 00:19:23,200 unlikely so let's consider the other 501 00:19:26,230 --> 00:19:24,880 side of the equation is it possible 502 00:19:27,909 --> 00:19:26,240 there's something 503 00:19:29,190 --> 00:19:27,919 really going on that we should be paying 504 00:19:30,390 --> 00:19:29,200 attention to 505 00:19:32,950 --> 00:19:30,400 um 506 00:19:34,789 --> 00:19:32,960 well one thing let's come back to our 507 00:19:36,789 --> 00:19:34,799 original sort of 508 00:19:39,029 --> 00:19:36,799 question where i said 509 00:19:41,110 --> 00:19:39,039 it looks like the size skeptics are 510 00:19:44,310 --> 00:19:41,120 basing their whole argument in large 511 00:19:46,150 --> 00:19:44,320 part on looking at 512 00:19:49,190 --> 00:19:46,160 various kinds of 513 00:19:50,950 --> 00:19:49,200 constraints or principles based on one 514 00:19:53,110 --> 00:19:50,960 set of data that they're applying to 515 00:19:54,230 --> 00:19:53,120 another set of data but is that really 516 00:19:56,710 --> 00:19:54,240 valid 517 00:19:59,590 --> 00:19:56,720 hume and another important argument 518 00:20:02,470 --> 00:19:59,600 argued that we never directly experience 519 00:20:04,710 --> 00:20:02,480 causation or causal relationships but 520 00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:04,720 rather only the regularities of how 521 00:20:08,390 --> 00:20:06,400 objects move together 522 00:20:10,630 --> 00:20:08,400 so for hume there's always this 523 00:20:13,190 --> 00:20:10,640 substantial gap between what was 524 00:20:16,390 --> 00:20:13,200 ultimately let's say matters of 525 00:20:19,190 --> 00:20:16,400 causation and our experience and because 526 00:20:21,270 --> 00:20:19,200 this gap is always present we can never 527 00:20:24,950 --> 00:20:21,280 really fully characterize 528 00:20:27,430 --> 00:20:24,960 um to some arbitrarily uh precise way 529 00:20:30,470 --> 00:20:27,440 what the causal laws actually are 530 00:20:32,870 --> 00:20:30,480 and thus it seems to invalidate this 531 00:20:35,510 --> 00:20:32,880 attempt by the size skeptics to take 532 00:20:40,549 --> 00:20:35,520 principles that are sort of inferred in 533 00:20:45,350 --> 00:20:42,870 so in the history of science we do have 534 00:20:47,909 --> 00:20:45,360 these episodes of anomalous findings 535 00:20:50,149 --> 00:20:47,919 regarding some new area of inquiry and 536 00:20:53,029 --> 00:20:50,159 often the pattern is is that we've got 537 00:20:56,070 --> 00:20:53,039 one set of one sort of new domain let's 538 00:20:58,549 --> 00:20:56,080 say for example the way that einstein 539 00:20:59,590 --> 00:20:58,559 explored relativity we had 540 00:21:01,750 --> 00:20:59,600 newton's 541 00:21:03,750 --> 00:21:01,760 laws which worked very well and then 542 00:21:07,270 --> 00:21:03,760 until finally we considered sort of 543 00:21:09,750 --> 00:21:07,280 maybe much larger areas of space where a 544 00:21:12,230 --> 00:21:09,760 much different kind of um sort of laws 545 00:21:14,390 --> 00:21:12,240 of nature were needed um quantum 546 00:21:17,110 --> 00:21:14,400 mechanics is another example 547 00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:17,120 um is non-classical in the sense that it 548 00:21:22,390 --> 00:21:20,640 entails some kind of non-local behavior 549 00:21:24,870 --> 00:21:22,400 and these persistent mysteries of 550 00:21:27,029 --> 00:21:24,880 quantum mechanics suggests sort of a 551 00:21:29,190 --> 00:21:27,039 persistent gap in our understanding of 552 00:21:30,789 --> 00:21:29,200 the sort of deeper ontology of the 553 00:21:33,110 --> 00:21:30,799 physical world 554 00:21:34,789 --> 00:21:33,120 and also philosophers continue to 555 00:21:37,430 --> 00:21:34,799 struggle to fit consciousness or 556 00:21:40,310 --> 00:21:37,440 subjective experience in our theater in 557 00:21:42,310 --> 00:21:40,320 our theories based on the physical world 558 00:21:44,470 --> 00:21:42,320 so 559 00:21:46,390 --> 00:21:44,480 chalmers david chalmers 560 00:21:48,470 --> 00:21:46,400 um is coined the term heart problem of 561 00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:48,480 consciousness and he's noticed that he's 562 00:21:53,350 --> 00:21:50,640 argued that consciousness in some sense 563 00:21:55,590 --> 00:21:53,360 a kind of anomaly okay so he says that 564 00:21:58,149 --> 00:21:55,600 consciousness right now is a kind of 565 00:22:00,390 --> 00:21:58,159 anomaly one that we need to integrate 566 00:22:02,710 --> 00:22:00,400 into our view of the world but don't 567 00:22:06,070 --> 00:22:02,720 really see how faced with an anomaly 568 00:22:08,710 --> 00:22:06,080 like this radical ideas might be needed 569 00:22:11,190 --> 00:22:08,720 and he says he thinks it may need one or 570 00:22:12,789 --> 00:22:11,200 two crazy ideas before we can really 571 00:22:14,789 --> 00:22:12,799 sort of make progress on the hard 572 00:22:15,750 --> 00:22:14,799 problem of consciousness 573 00:22:17,510 --> 00:22:15,760 and 574 00:22:19,270 --> 00:22:17,520 chalmers is someone who argues that we 575 00:22:21,669 --> 00:22:19,280 probably need to take consciousness as 576 00:22:23,669 --> 00:22:21,679 fundamental in some sense not something 577 00:22:25,029 --> 00:22:23,679 that just emerges from non-conscious 578 00:22:27,750 --> 00:22:25,039 particles 579 00:22:30,549 --> 00:22:27,760 um another philosopher of consciousness 580 00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:30,559 keith frankish has sort of a a very 581 00:22:34,870 --> 00:22:32,320 different view of consciousness he says 582 00:22:37,750 --> 00:22:34,880 that consciousness is a not is truly 583 00:22:40,149 --> 00:22:37,760 anomalous in the sense of being radical 584 00:22:42,630 --> 00:22:40,159 inexplicable within our established 585 00:22:45,430 --> 00:22:42,640 scientific worldview but he views the 586 00:22:47,430 --> 00:22:45,440 idea that consciousness is so radical 587 00:22:49,350 --> 00:22:47,440 from our um 588 00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:49,360 from our conventional views that it's 589 00:22:53,590 --> 00:22:51,760 probably some kind of illusion it's 590 00:22:56,310 --> 00:22:53,600 probably some something that's not 591 00:22:58,870 --> 00:22:56,320 really as real as we think it is which 592 00:23:00,470 --> 00:22:58,880 of course is kind of a strange thing 593 00:23:01,510 --> 00:23:00,480 because it just seems like the one thing 594 00:23:03,430 --> 00:23:01,520 we should 595 00:23:04,870 --> 00:23:03,440 maybe take as real as our conscious 596 00:23:07,510 --> 00:23:04,880 experience 597 00:23:09,110 --> 00:23:07,520 but frankish feels that our are we 598 00:23:11,510 --> 00:23:09,120 should we should probably 599 00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:11,520 find ways where where we're where we're 600 00:23:17,029 --> 00:23:13,760 not really having consciousness the way 601 00:23:19,029 --> 00:23:17,039 we think are now if you think about this 602 00:23:21,029 --> 00:23:19,039 this is kind of astonishing because it 603 00:23:24,230 --> 00:23:21,039 means with regarding consciousness we 604 00:23:25,990 --> 00:23:24,240 may have two sets of data the side data 605 00:23:27,990 --> 00:23:26,000 and our own 606 00:23:29,190 --> 00:23:28,000 experiences that suggest that 607 00:23:31,750 --> 00:23:29,200 consciousness 608 00:23:33,669 --> 00:23:31,760 is really something that doesn't fit in 609 00:23:35,990 --> 00:23:33,679 with our conscious experience 610 00:23:38,070 --> 00:23:36,000 if we do take our consciousness 611 00:23:40,870 --> 00:23:38,080 conscious experiences is real and 612 00:23:43,190 --> 00:23:40,880 therefore anomalous it really in my view 613 00:23:45,350 --> 00:23:43,200 opens the door 614 00:23:47,190 --> 00:23:45,360 or should i open our minds to the idea 615 00:23:49,110 --> 00:23:47,200 that maybe the psi data is sort of 616 00:23:50,630 --> 00:23:49,120 telling us something about the nature of 617 00:23:53,669 --> 00:23:50,640 consciousness 618 00:23:55,909 --> 00:23:53,679 so if we think about on the side data it 619 00:23:58,230 --> 00:23:55,919 arguably falls into the domains of 620 00:24:00,390 --> 00:23:58,240 quantum mechanics and consciousness this 621 00:24:02,230 --> 00:24:00,400 these two areas that we're still sort of 622 00:24:04,630 --> 00:24:02,240 like trying to understand 623 00:24:07,029 --> 00:24:04,640 um like i said before the psi data some 624 00:24:09,269 --> 00:24:07,039 of the side data does sort of seem to be 625 00:24:11,750 --> 00:24:09,279 linked with quantum mechanics uh dean 626 00:24:13,990 --> 00:24:11,760 rayden also has some experiments on the 627 00:24:16,549 --> 00:24:14,000 double slit experiment which suggests 628 00:24:19,909 --> 00:24:16,559 some sensitivity to mental intention 629 00:24:22,149 --> 00:24:19,919 so it seems like these persistent areas 630 00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:22,159 give us reason to think that you know 631 00:24:25,990 --> 00:24:24,000 the psi data is something that we have 632 00:24:29,190 --> 00:24:26,000 to take more seriously and can't just 633 00:24:30,310 --> 00:24:29,200 sweep away so just inclusion to wrap 634 00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:30,320 things up 635 00:24:34,149 --> 00:24:32,080 i want to point out that the probability 636 00:24:37,029 --> 00:24:34,159 that the data summarized by 637 00:24:38,149 --> 00:24:37,039 recently by cardenia is generated that 638 00:24:40,710 --> 00:24:38,159 that is the probability that it's 639 00:24:41,830 --> 00:24:40,720 generated by fraudulent or questionable 640 00:24:44,789 --> 00:24:41,840 practices 641 00:24:47,430 --> 00:24:44,799 it appears to be extremely unlikely and 642 00:24:50,630 --> 00:24:47,440 that and further i believe hume would 643 00:24:53,430 --> 00:24:50,640 not endorse uh what the practice of 644 00:24:55,350 --> 00:24:53,440 extrapolating principles or constraints 645 00:24:57,750 --> 00:24:55,360 that are inferred from one domain such 646 00:24:58,710 --> 00:24:57,760 as physics and sort of like try to sort 647 00:25:01,029 --> 00:24:58,720 of 648 00:25:02,710 --> 00:25:01,039 apply them in a very different one okay 649 00:25:05,190 --> 00:25:02,720 such as consciousness 650 00:25:08,149 --> 00:25:05,200 and as it happens the side data seems to 651 00:25:10,630 --> 00:25:08,159 fall within domains where there remain 652 00:25:11,909 --> 00:25:10,640 persistent gaps in our understanding as 653 00:25:14,789 --> 00:25:11,919 i said quantum mechanics and 654 00:25:17,350 --> 00:25:14,799 consciousness so overall i believe the 655 00:25:19,830 --> 00:25:17,360 greater likelihood is that psy 656 00:25:22,710 --> 00:25:19,840 as with consciousness um represents 657 00:25:23,590 --> 00:25:22,720 something that's real yet anomalous not 658 00:25:29,029 --> 00:25:23,600 quite 659 00:25:31,669 --> 00:25:29,039 sort of more conventional understandings 660 00:25:34,630 --> 00:25:31,679 now i'm not certain to answer my sort of 661 00:25:36,630 --> 00:25:34,640 question in the title i i i'm not sure 662 00:25:38,870 --> 00:25:36,640 uh hume would agree with all this i mean 663 00:25:41,029 --> 00:25:38,880 i guess we should we could try to 664 00:25:43,190 --> 00:25:41,039 you know maybe um 665 00:25:45,029 --> 00:25:43,200 reanimate his body his corpse but then 666 00:25:47,350 --> 00:25:45,039 he would that would be a miracle and i 667 00:25:50,470 --> 00:25:47,360 think he would be very um put off by 668 00:25:53,110 --> 00:25:50,480 that so uh anyways probably best to say 669 00:25:55,430 --> 00:25:53,120 that um he we don't really know what he 670 00:25:57,830 --> 00:25:55,440 would say but it's possible but i think 671 00:26:00,310 --> 00:25:57,840 what we can say is that his arguments do 672 00:26:04,070 --> 00:26:00,320 not provide the resources that sai 673 00:26:08,390 --> 00:26:04,080 skeptics um maintain to dismiss the psy 674 00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:08,400 data so uh anyway i wanna now thank you 675 00:26:13,430 --> 00:26:10,640 i'm gonna hand york the mic 676 00:26:16,149 --> 00:26:13,440 uh well i'm sorry to say that this isn't 677 00:26:18,149 --> 00:26:16,159 exactly a question except maybe a 678 00:26:21,830 --> 00:26:18,159 rhetorical one 679 00:26:25,350 --> 00:26:21,840 but i notice that the 680 00:26:27,430 --> 00:26:25,360 um rebrand alcott paper uh 681 00:26:29,830 --> 00:26:27,440 invokes the 682 00:26:32,870 --> 00:26:29,840 inverse square law 683 00:26:36,310 --> 00:26:32,880 uh criticism for what is probably the 684 00:26:39,430 --> 00:26:36,320 thousandth time over the last century 685 00:26:42,789 --> 00:26:39,440 um and the problem with it i i don't see 686 00:26:45,110 --> 00:26:42,799 why anyone takes it seriously because 687 00:26:47,590 --> 00:26:45,120 our everyday experience is full of 688 00:26:50,789 --> 00:26:47,600 genuine physical phenomena that don't 689 00:26:53,830 --> 00:26:50,799 obey the inverse square law the 690 00:26:55,669 --> 00:26:53,840 uh best example 691 00:26:59,190 --> 00:26:55,679 uh 692 00:27:01,269 --> 00:26:59,200 for a brief response is 693 00:27:01,990 --> 00:27:01,279 radio broadcasts 694 00:27:04,310 --> 00:27:02,000 the 695 00:27:07,269 --> 00:27:04,320 signal-to-noise ratio of a radio 696 00:27:08,070 --> 00:27:07,279 broadcast does obey the inverse square 697 00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:08,080 law 698 00:27:12,630 --> 00:27:10,400 but what you hear 699 00:27:14,870 --> 00:27:12,640 what comes out of the speaker of a radio 700 00:27:17,430 --> 00:27:14,880 we don't perceive radio directly 701 00:27:19,830 --> 00:27:17,440 we perceive the informational content of 702 00:27:21,750 --> 00:27:19,840 a signal that is broadcast 703 00:27:24,470 --> 00:27:21,760 using radio 704 00:27:26,549 --> 00:27:24,480 and as long as the signal-to-noise ratio 705 00:27:27,909 --> 00:27:26,559 is above the threshold that our receiver 706 00:27:30,149 --> 00:27:27,919 can discriminate 707 00:27:32,950 --> 00:27:30,159 we get exactly the same broadcast 708 00:27:34,470 --> 00:27:32,960 whether we're a thousand miles away or 709 00:27:37,669 --> 00:27:34,480 standing right next to the broadcast 710 00:27:41,590 --> 00:27:37,679 station the information content does not 711 00:27:45,830 --> 00:27:43,590 so there are there are other complaints 712 00:27:49,110 --> 00:27:45,840 i could make about the rebrand all 713 00:27:50,389 --> 00:27:49,120 paper but i think i should leave that to 714 00:27:52,950 --> 00:27:50,399 uh 715 00:27:54,950 --> 00:27:52,960 leave open the space for other people 716 00:27:56,789 --> 00:27:54,960 yeah there okay well thank you 717 00:28:00,070 --> 00:27:56,799 thank you 718 00:28:02,389 --> 00:28:00,080 yeah there's a i i i i i did a i did a 719 00:28:05,029 --> 00:28:02,399 paper version where i critiqued rieber 720 00:28:08,389 --> 00:28:05,039 and alcock that was in a previous issue 721 00:28:11,590 --> 00:28:08,399 of uh journal of scientific exploration 722 00:28:14,230 --> 00:28:11,600 and uh i sort of went into more detail 723 00:28:16,389 --> 00:28:14,240 um each of the of the uh sort of 724 00:28:18,470 --> 00:28:16,399 principles and i said why 725 00:28:20,870 --> 00:28:18,480 why i think they don't really work while 726 00:28:23,190 --> 00:28:20,880 they may arguably work in sort of 727 00:28:26,149 --> 00:28:23,200 classical physics how they arguably 728 00:28:28,230 --> 00:28:26,159 don't quite work well in if we want to 729 00:28:31,909 --> 00:28:28,240 look in areas such as consciousness and 730 00:28:34,710 --> 00:28:31,919 quantum mechanics but i did not use your 731 00:28:37,269 --> 00:28:34,720 point of yorkshire so i appreciate you 732 00:28:38,070 --> 00:28:37,279 for for sharing that um but but but i 733 00:28:43,110 --> 00:28:38,080 did 734 00:28:46,070 --> 00:28:43,120 um just to kind of one one in particular 735 00:28:48,630 --> 00:28:46,080 is lack of causal mechanism that this is 736 00:28:49,430 --> 00:28:48,640 kind of also wagonmacher also attacked 737 00:28:51,430 --> 00:28:49,440 them 738 00:28:53,110 --> 00:28:51,440 in that the idea is that we need a sort 739 00:28:53,909 --> 00:28:53,120 of causal mechanism 740 00:28:56,230 --> 00:28:53,919 um 741 00:28:58,149 --> 00:28:56,240 one pro one problem of that is that in 742 00:28:59,590 --> 00:28:58,159 in quantum mechanics the the collapse of 743 00:29:02,310 --> 00:28:59,600 the wave function 744 00:29:04,789 --> 00:29:02,320 uh or as bait as bone david bohm 745 00:29:07,029 --> 00:29:04,799 explains in his um interpretations of 746 00:29:09,590 --> 00:29:07,039 quantum mechanics causal mechanisms 747 00:29:12,149 --> 00:29:09,600 don't really seem to play the kind of 748 00:29:14,470 --> 00:29:12,159 role in quantum mechanics if at all and 749 00:29:17,909 --> 00:29:14,480 then david chalmers actually sort of 750 00:29:19,990 --> 00:29:17,919 characterizes the hard problem as the as 751 00:29:22,230 --> 00:29:20,000 is trying to sort of explain the um 752 00:29:24,870 --> 00:29:22,240 aspects of consciousness that can't be 753 00:29:28,149 --> 00:29:24,880 really characterized in terms of sort of 754 00:29:30,149 --> 00:29:28,159 mechanisms and and functions so you know 755 00:29:32,470 --> 00:29:30,159 once we sort of leave the the confines 756 00:29:34,230 --> 00:29:32,480 of classical physics these principles i 757 00:29:36,310 --> 00:29:34,240 think that uh reber and alcock want to 758 00:29:37,190 --> 00:29:36,320 sort of hinge so much of their argument 759 00:29:41,430 --> 00:29:37,200 on 760 00:29:45,909 --> 00:29:42,710 anybody 761 00:29:49,110 --> 00:29:45,919 okay um i see another raised hand 762 00:29:51,190 --> 00:29:49,120 um okay i'm gonna hand uh i think it's 763 00:29:52,470 --> 00:29:51,200 kenny the mic um 764 00:29:55,590 --> 00:29:52,480 the thing that's been bothering me 765 00:29:57,830 --> 00:29:55,600 throughout this discussion so far 766 00:30:00,230 --> 00:29:57,840 is something that i think 767 00:30:03,029 --> 00:30:00,240 as members of sse we would all more or 768 00:30:05,269 --> 00:30:03,039 less agree on and that's the idea that 769 00:30:07,269 --> 00:30:05,279 our understanding of physics is woefully 770 00:30:09,830 --> 00:30:07,279 incomplete 771 00:30:11,510 --> 00:30:09,840 it is severely limited 772 00:30:14,149 --> 00:30:11,520 and 773 00:30:16,389 --> 00:30:14,159 to say that physics can't explain 774 00:30:19,029 --> 00:30:16,399 x y or z 775 00:30:21,669 --> 00:30:19,039 really to me means we have not yet 776 00:30:24,710 --> 00:30:21,679 arrived at 777 00:30:25,590 --> 00:30:24,720 a complete understanding of physics 778 00:30:28,710 --> 00:30:25,600 so 779 00:30:31,669 --> 00:30:28,720 mechanism 780 00:30:32,950 --> 00:30:31,679 and therefore that thing isn't real 781 00:30:35,269 --> 00:30:32,960 well i would 782 00:30:37,590 --> 00:30:35,279 i would hasten to 783 00:30:39,269 --> 00:30:37,600 remind the speaker not you but the 784 00:30:41,269 --> 00:30:39,279 speaker in general 785 00:30:43,350 --> 00:30:41,279 that we don't understand 786 00:30:45,830 --> 00:30:43,360 all kinds of things 787 00:30:48,230 --> 00:30:45,840 that a revision of physics a severe 788 00:30:50,710 --> 00:30:48,240 revision of physics might eventually 789 00:30:52,789 --> 00:30:50,720 help us understand 790 00:30:55,110 --> 00:30:52,799 so 791 00:30:56,310 --> 00:30:55,120 i'm all into causal mechanisms 792 00:30:58,070 --> 00:30:56,320 but 793 00:30:59,430 --> 00:30:58,080 i just don't think we're smart enough 794 00:31:02,470 --> 00:30:59,440 yet 795 00:31:03,830 --> 00:31:02,480 another question or just a comment but i 796 00:31:06,470 --> 00:31:03,840 would be interested in how you feel 797 00:31:07,350 --> 00:31:06,480 about that yeah um what's interesting in 798 00:31:09,269 --> 00:31:07,360 the real 799 00:31:11,269 --> 00:31:09,279 paper they they actually 800 00:31:14,230 --> 00:31:11,279 acknowledge the fact that 801 00:31:16,710 --> 00:31:14,240 on sir isaac newton um his theory of 802 00:31:18,789 --> 00:31:16,720 gravitation didn't really have a a 803 00:31:21,110 --> 00:31:18,799 mechanism it's sort of in sort of an 804 00:31:24,149 --> 00:31:21,120 action distance that seems to be but yet 805 00:31:25,830 --> 00:31:24,159 people and and people talked about how 806 00:31:27,669 --> 00:31:25,840 you know that worried them a little bit 807 00:31:30,230 --> 00:31:27,679 it worried newton too but it's that 808 00:31:33,269 --> 00:31:30,240 people used it people found it to be 809 00:31:36,549 --> 00:31:33,279 very useful very accurate way of sort of 810 00:31:38,470 --> 00:31:36,559 uh describing the behavior of objects so 811 00:31:41,430 --> 00:31:38,480 in their in their own paper they seem to 812 00:31:44,149 --> 00:31:41,440 kind of acknowledge that sometimes we 813 00:31:45,110 --> 00:31:44,159 don't really need a causal mechanism 814 00:31:47,909 --> 00:31:45,120 um 815 00:31:48,630 --> 00:31:47,919 to uh to sort of like you know go along 816 00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:48,640 with 817 00:31:54,230 --> 00:31:50,320 you know to at least you know try to 818 00:31:57,990 --> 00:31:54,240 sort of uh um explain or um or at least 819 00:32:00,549 --> 00:31:58,000 um describe aspects of of the world so 820 00:32:03,669 --> 00:32:00,559 they kind of in a way defeat their own 821 00:32:06,230 --> 00:32:03,679 um claim in a way um and as i said also 822 00:32:09,990 --> 00:32:06,240 that there probably there may well be 823 00:32:12,149 --> 00:32:10,000 um areas of of physics that um maybe we 824 00:32:13,830 --> 00:32:12,159 that don't involve sort of those kinds 825 00:32:16,070 --> 00:32:13,840 of causal mechanisms but you're quite 826 00:32:17,669 --> 00:32:16,080 right there may be causal mechanisms 827 00:32:20,310 --> 00:32:17,679 that we just don't know about you know 828 00:32:22,789 --> 00:32:20,320 and that's another possibility um so 829 00:32:26,389 --> 00:32:22,799 anyway i i you know i take your point 830 00:32:28,630 --> 00:32:26,399 that and i think they you know sort of 831 00:32:30,389 --> 00:32:28,640 are they're sort of vulnerable to 832 00:32:34,549 --> 00:32:30,399 critique as well 833 00:32:38,549 --> 00:32:37,110 hi logan hi george 834 00:32:39,669 --> 00:32:38,559 i think uh 835 00:32:40,470 --> 00:32:39,679 can you hear me 836 00:32:43,909 --> 00:32:40,480 yes 837 00:32:45,909 --> 00:32:43,919 okay great sorry uh here we go hi hi uh 838 00:32:47,990 --> 00:32:45,919 we talked a bit over uh email thank you 839 00:32:50,870 --> 00:32:48,000 for inviting me to this wonderful talk 840 00:32:53,830 --> 00:32:50,880 um i have a question i have plenty of 841 00:32:55,750 --> 00:32:53,840 comments i have a question um which is 842 00:32:58,070 --> 00:32:55,760 uh i'm going to assume that you are 843 00:33:00,870 --> 00:32:58,080 familiar with the famous um 844 00:33:02,789 --> 00:33:00,880 uh sagan standard uh you know uh 845 00:33:05,509 --> 00:33:02,799 described in the aphorism extraordinary 846 00:33:07,990 --> 00:33:05,519 claims require extraordinary evidence 847 00:33:09,669 --> 00:33:08,000 yeah curious how you would map 848 00:33:11,909 --> 00:33:09,679 hume's view 849 00:33:13,269 --> 00:33:11,919 to that standard 850 00:33:15,990 --> 00:33:13,279 um which is something that's always 851 00:33:18,389 --> 00:33:16,000 bothered me i'm an experimentalist 852 00:33:20,230 --> 00:33:18,399 and uh and for all you experimentalists 853 00:33:21,190 --> 00:33:20,240 out there um if you know you know trying 854 00:33:24,470 --> 00:33:21,200 to get a 855 00:33:27,590 --> 00:33:24,480 a paper just of some some ordinary claim 856 00:33:29,110 --> 00:33:27,600 through peer review oftentimes it seems 857 00:33:31,430 --> 00:33:29,120 to require extraordinary evidence to 858 00:33:32,710 --> 00:33:31,440 convince these reviewers so i've never 859 00:33:34,549 --> 00:33:32,720 really 860 00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:34,559 bought into this 861 00:33:37,430 --> 00:33:36,080 this uh 862 00:33:38,789 --> 00:33:37,440 criterion 863 00:33:40,549 --> 00:33:38,799 and so um 864 00:33:42,149 --> 00:33:40,559 in you know just you know uh listening 865 00:33:44,070 --> 00:33:42,159 to your talk on 866 00:33:47,909 --> 00:33:44,080 on hume i was wondering if if you could 867 00:33:48,950 --> 00:33:47,919 see a a mapping between the two yeah 868 00:33:50,149 --> 00:33:48,960 um 869 00:33:53,669 --> 00:33:50,159 well 870 00:33:54,870 --> 00:33:53,679 i yeah him him sort of i think tries to 871 00:33:57,909 --> 00:33:54,880 argue that 872 00:34:00,710 --> 00:33:57,919 um miracles are um 873 00:34:03,750 --> 00:34:00,720 are kind of like just inherently unr the 874 00:34:06,870 --> 00:34:03,760 testimony regarding miracles is just 875 00:34:10,069 --> 00:34:06,880 inherently unreliable um i think that 876 00:34:11,909 --> 00:34:10,079 sagan um sagan's idea is a little bit 877 00:34:14,869 --> 00:34:11,919 different from him although there's that 878 00:34:17,349 --> 00:34:14,879 they are sort of comparable um i guess 879 00:34:18,470 --> 00:34:17,359 the problem i have with sagans is i 880 00:34:20,230 --> 00:34:18,480 don't know 881 00:34:21,589 --> 00:34:20,240 i mean there's not there's not much of a 882 00:34:22,629 --> 00:34:21,599 definition 883 00:34:26,230 --> 00:34:22,639 around 884 00:34:28,230 --> 00:34:26,240 x what extraordinary means um like i 885 00:34:31,030 --> 00:34:28,240 mean to me like 886 00:34:33,669 --> 00:34:31,040 there's there's the there's the 887 00:34:37,030 --> 00:34:33,679 i mentioned briefly um 888 00:34:38,790 --> 00:34:37,040 sean carroll so he claims that the 889 00:34:40,790 --> 00:34:38,800 quantum mechan the best explanation of 890 00:34:42,710 --> 00:34:40,800 quantum mechanics is the multiverse that 891 00:34:45,270 --> 00:34:42,720 is every time there's a quantum event 892 00:34:47,430 --> 00:34:45,280 the universe splits but we can never see 893 00:34:49,430 --> 00:34:47,440 it because we we're in one universe and 894 00:34:51,510 --> 00:34:49,440 then there's another universe now that's 895 00:34:53,190 --> 00:34:51,520 a pretty extraordinary claim in my view 896 00:34:55,669 --> 00:34:53,200 in fact it's probably way more 897 00:34:56,869 --> 00:34:55,679 extraordinary than 898 00:34:58,870 --> 00:34:56,879 than um 899 00:34:59,750 --> 00:34:58,880 than than inside 900 00:35:02,470 --> 00:34:59,760 but 901 00:35:04,550 --> 00:35:02,480 psy actually has evidence whereas 902 00:35:06,710 --> 00:35:04,560 sean carroll doesn't really provide any 903 00:35:08,230 --> 00:35:06,720 evidence other than just simply an 904 00:35:11,190 --> 00:35:08,240 argument around the 905 00:35:13,349 --> 00:35:11,200 interpretation of the wave function so 906 00:35:15,750 --> 00:35:13,359 so this this this notion of 907 00:35:17,670 --> 00:35:15,760 extraordinary claim requires 908 00:35:19,829 --> 00:35:17,680 extraordinary evidence it seems like it 909 00:35:22,150 --> 00:35:19,839 depends on 910 00:35:25,910 --> 00:35:22,160 that there's it it's it doesn't seem to 911 00:35:28,630 --> 00:35:25,920 be a principle that's kind of used um 912 00:35:31,030 --> 00:35:28,640 in a consistent way across science and 913 00:35:33,829 --> 00:35:31,040 and of course the the terms 914 00:35:36,069 --> 00:35:33,839 extraordinary seems to be kind of um 915 00:35:38,870 --> 00:35:36,079 seems to be kind of vague or 916 00:35:41,589 --> 00:35:38,880 or ill-defined um as i mentioned in my 917 00:35:43,510 --> 00:35:41,599 talk um i think that um 918 00:35:45,670 --> 00:35:43,520 keith frankish the the philosopher of 919 00:35:48,710 --> 00:35:45,680 consciousness would argue that 920 00:35:51,589 --> 00:35:48,720 consciousness our conscious experiences 921 00:35:53,109 --> 00:35:51,599 um are actually so extraordinary that we 922 00:35:55,190 --> 00:35:53,119 should probably 923 00:35:56,870 --> 00:35:55,200 say that they that they're unlikely to 924 00:36:00,150 --> 00:35:56,880 exist okay that's 925 00:36:02,230 --> 00:36:00,160 that's kind of a way he argues so um 926 00:36:04,550 --> 00:36:02,240 it's it's it's a very inherently 927 00:36:07,589 --> 00:36:04,560 problematic kind of maxim 928 00:36:09,829 --> 00:36:07,599 um when you try to apply it um sort of 929 00:36:12,390 --> 00:36:09,839 outside in especially in these areas 930 00:36:14,710 --> 00:36:12,400 like quantum mechanics and consciousness 931 00:36:15,750 --> 00:36:14,720 where we have these sort of persistent 932 00:36:19,190 --> 00:36:15,760 mysteries 933 00:36:21,190 --> 00:36:19,200 um so um i guess i guess the way to try 934 00:36:23,589 --> 00:36:21,200 to do a mapping to try to come back to 935 00:36:25,510 --> 00:36:23,599 your question is that we would you know 936 00:36:28,470 --> 00:36:25,520 maybe maybe someone 937 00:36:30,069 --> 00:36:28,480 with humes uh um you know it's it seems 938 00:36:32,390 --> 00:36:30,079 like that they were saying that if 939 00:36:34,790 --> 00:36:32,400 something's extraordinary we would have 940 00:36:37,190 --> 00:36:34,800 to have a lot of data a lot of 941 00:36:39,030 --> 00:36:37,200 experiments the kind of like kind of 942 00:36:42,230 --> 00:36:39,040 like you know confirmation of 943 00:36:43,109 --> 00:36:42,240 confirmation but the problem there in my 944 00:36:45,430 --> 00:36:43,119 view 945 00:36:47,030 --> 00:36:45,440 um you know we sort of have that we have 946 00:36:48,790 --> 00:36:47,040 a lot of data 947 00:36:51,829 --> 00:36:48,800 we have meta-analysis 948 00:36:54,150 --> 00:36:51,839 of based on studies across 949 00:36:57,190 --> 00:36:54,160 time across different laboratories and 950 00:37:00,470 --> 00:36:57,200 researchers different modalities such as 951 00:37:02,870 --> 00:37:00,480 um you know precognition presentement um 952 00:37:05,270 --> 00:37:02,880 you know remote viewing and so forth so 953 00:37:08,630 --> 00:37:05,280 it just seems like you know even on that 954 00:37:10,870 --> 00:37:08,640 score you know we we probably we could 955 00:37:12,069 --> 00:37:10,880 probably even manage it so 956 00:37:14,870 --> 00:37:12,079 when i hear 957 00:37:16,310 --> 00:37:14,880 um the term or the or that maxim i'm 958 00:37:17,750 --> 00:37:16,320 thinking that what what people are 959 00:37:19,990 --> 00:37:17,760 trying to get into 960 00:37:21,430 --> 00:37:20,000 is more of a social construction in 961 00:37:22,950 --> 00:37:21,440 other words we're just 962 00:37:24,710 --> 00:37:22,960 you know things like sci are just 963 00:37:26,069 --> 00:37:24,720 outside of science 964 00:37:28,230 --> 00:37:26,079 they don't really ha 965 00:37:29,030 --> 00:37:28,240 it's it's it's in this in the sense that 966 00:37:31,030 --> 00:37:29,040 it just 967 00:37:33,910 --> 00:37:31,040 to them maybe conjures 968 00:37:35,430 --> 00:37:33,920 um you know um associations with 969 00:37:36,470 --> 00:37:35,440 religion or something like that so that 970 00:37:38,230 --> 00:37:36,480 they 971 00:37:40,150 --> 00:37:38,240 it's very so in other words it's very 972 00:37:42,069 --> 00:37:40,160 difficult to sort of apply 973 00:37:43,750 --> 00:37:42,079 um scientific principles and be 974 00:37:45,990 --> 00:37:43,760 consistent about it and say that side 975 00:37:47,990 --> 00:37:46,000 doesn't exist so there's all these other 976 00:37:49,670 --> 00:37:48,000 kinds of arguments that sort of that are 977 00:37:51,270 --> 00:37:49,680 sort of thrown around 978 00:37:53,190 --> 00:37:51,280 and at the end of the day 979 00:37:55,430 --> 00:37:53,200 it seems like the arguments in my view 980 00:37:56,310 --> 00:37:55,440 are kind of weak so i don't know i i 981 00:37:58,950 --> 00:37:56,320 hope 982 00:38:01,349 --> 00:37:58,960 some of that answers your question 983 00:38:03,910 --> 00:38:01,359 thank you all right thank you logan 984 00:38:06,310 --> 00:38:03,920 all right so i have a question from da 985 00:38:09,190 --> 00:38:06,320 chain pio 986 00:38:11,510 --> 00:38:09,200 he says that inverse square does not 987 00:38:12,870 --> 00:38:11,520 apply to all physical phenomena for 988 00:38:15,430 --> 00:38:12,880 example 989 00:38:17,270 --> 00:38:15,440 laser propagation does not abide the 990 00:38:20,150 --> 00:38:17,280 inverse square law 991 00:38:22,710 --> 00:38:20,160 every music was once new and every 992 00:38:24,950 --> 00:38:22,720 physical phenomenon was once anomalous 993 00:38:28,150 --> 00:38:24,960 what if psy is a kind of coherent 994 00:38:32,550 --> 00:38:30,870 what what if what if psy was a coherent 995 00:38:35,910 --> 00:38:32,560 phenomenon 996 00:38:36,870 --> 00:38:35,920 i'm not exactly sure i understand the 997 00:38:39,750 --> 00:38:36,880 question 998 00:38:41,510 --> 00:38:39,760 um but but i certainly take your point 999 00:38:42,470 --> 00:38:41,520 that you know everything that we're 1000 00:38:44,710 --> 00:38:42,480 learning 1001 00:38:46,870 --> 00:38:44,720 in the universe by coherent i assume you 1002 00:38:49,430 --> 00:38:46,880 mean it it actually is 1003 00:38:51,910 --> 00:38:49,440 kind of normal that is it fits with our 1004 00:38:53,670 --> 00:38:51,920 reality it's coherent in that sense i 1005 00:38:54,630 --> 00:38:53,680 i'm sort of presuming that that's 1006 00:38:57,349 --> 00:38:54,640 presumed 1007 00:38:59,349 --> 00:38:57,359 yeah i'm presuming that um that is to 1008 00:39:01,270 --> 00:38:59,359 say that it may seem anomalous because 1009 00:39:03,510 --> 00:39:01,280 we've got this set of data from 1010 00:39:04,550 --> 00:39:03,520 classical physics that suggests well it 1011 00:39:07,670 --> 00:39:04,560 can't fit 1012 00:39:08,470 --> 00:39:07,680 but everything as you point out um you 1013 00:39:10,870 --> 00:39:08,480 know 1014 00:39:13,030 --> 00:39:10,880 does um does seem anomalous at first 1015 00:39:14,870 --> 00:39:13,040 when you're first learning about it so 1016 00:39:17,349 --> 00:39:14,880 it could well be that it's 1017 00:39:19,270 --> 00:39:17,359 maybe not only maybe it's maybe it's 1018 00:39:21,829 --> 00:39:19,280 just normal and i think uh 1019 00:39:23,670 --> 00:39:21,839 um that's that i think is a really good 1020 00:39:24,790 --> 00:39:23,680 way of thinking about psy assuming 1021 00:39:26,950 --> 00:39:24,800 that's what you're what you're 1022 00:39:28,550 --> 00:39:26,960 suggesting and i think that uh 1023 00:39:37,109 --> 00:39:28,560 um 1024 00:39:38,950 --> 00:39:37,119 first sight it's uh first sight trying 1025 00:39:41,589 --> 00:39:38,960 to think of the author's name carpenter 1026 00:39:44,390 --> 00:39:41,599 that's it basically um develops a very 1027 00:39:46,550 --> 00:39:44,400 sophisticated um framework for 1028 00:39:48,630 --> 00:39:46,560 psychology thinking of psy is just 1029 00:39:51,589 --> 00:39:48,640 normal but it sort of comes through our 1030 00:39:54,829 --> 00:39:51,599 subconscious and he's got a very sort of 1031 00:39:57,670 --> 00:39:54,839 rich framework for understanding how 1032 00:39:59,750 --> 00:39:57,680 um based on various mechanisms in our 1033 00:40:02,550 --> 00:39:59,760 psychology how we might be filtering out 1034 00:40:05,510 --> 00:40:02,560 the psy information or actually sort of 1035 00:40:07,270 --> 00:40:05,520 like um sort of using it uh to inform 1036 00:40:09,910 --> 00:40:07,280 our world so i think that he's got a 1037 00:40:12,870 --> 00:40:09,920 good sort of framework for exploring psy 1038 00:40:15,270 --> 00:40:12,880 is something normal um that we that most 1039 00:40:17,430 --> 00:40:15,280 of us sort of have to some degree 1040 00:40:19,910 --> 00:40:17,440 um and maybe we just sort of have to get 1041 00:40:21,670 --> 00:40:19,920 past this idea that it's somehow 1042 00:40:24,309 --> 00:40:21,680 something that's kind of strange but 1043 00:40:27,990 --> 00:40:24,319 actually just part of our world that we 1044 00:40:30,069 --> 00:40:28,000 are learning about so anyway hope that's 1045 00:40:31,829 --> 00:40:30,079 so i've got one more raised hand and 1046 00:40:32,950 --> 00:40:31,839 then a final question from york and 1047 00:40:35,030 --> 00:40:32,960 that's all the time we're going to have 1048 00:40:37,430 --> 00:40:35,040 so i'm going to go ahead and pass the 1049 00:40:39,109 --> 00:40:37,440 mic to newsy 1050 00:40:40,790 --> 00:40:39,119 and that will be the last raised hand 1051 00:40:42,710 --> 00:40:40,800 question for today 1052 00:40:46,309 --> 00:40:42,720 so my question was triggered by the 1053 00:40:47,829 --> 00:40:46,319 mention of conspiracy theory uh that you 1054 00:40:49,349 --> 00:40:47,839 know there is this sort of wild 1055 00:40:52,390 --> 00:40:49,359 conjecture that there might be a 1056 00:40:55,270 --> 00:40:52,400 conspiracy theory by people who 1057 00:40:58,069 --> 00:40:55,280 proponents of psy so we could turn turn 1058 00:41:00,630 --> 00:40:58,079 this around and say that 1059 00:41:03,510 --> 00:41:00,640 it could be that psy is not accepted in 1060 00:41:06,390 --> 00:41:03,520 spite of the voluminous evidence because 1061 00:41:09,030 --> 00:41:06,400 there is a conspiracy theory against psy 1062 00:41:12,069 --> 00:41:09,040 i'm not suggesting there is but we could 1063 00:41:13,750 --> 00:41:12,079 turn the tables around because there are 1064 00:41:18,790 --> 00:41:13,760 probably 1065 00:41:20,870 --> 00:41:18,800 dissonance and resistance maybe 1066 00:41:22,150 --> 00:41:20,880 unconscious resistance because it seems 1067 00:41:24,230 --> 00:41:22,160 to me that 1068 00:41:25,990 --> 00:41:24,240 conventional religion 1069 00:41:28,870 --> 00:41:26,000 might be threatened they would probably 1070 00:41:32,550 --> 00:41:28,880 have a lot to lose if it turned out that 1071 00:41:34,710 --> 00:41:32,560 psy is true because various claims about 1072 00:41:35,990 --> 00:41:34,720 prayers and miracles the way they're 1073 00:41:38,230 --> 00:41:36,000 explained 1074 00:41:41,349 --> 00:41:38,240 traditionally in conventional religion 1075 00:41:43,750 --> 00:41:41,359 would have to be modified so uh so so 1076 00:41:45,589 --> 00:41:43,760 one is just sort of a sarcastic kind of 1077 00:41:48,150 --> 00:41:45,599 comment okay you know if they're saying 1078 00:41:50,150 --> 00:41:48,160 that we have a cons doing a conspiracy 1079 00:41:52,150 --> 00:41:50,160 theory maybe somebody is doing it 1080 00:41:53,990 --> 00:41:52,160 against the psy folks so that's just a 1081 00:41:56,790 --> 00:41:54,000 sort of facetious comment but on a 1082 00:41:59,270 --> 00:41:56,800 serious note i was wondering if some 1083 00:42:01,349 --> 00:41:59,280 someone has written a paper or compiled 1084 00:42:03,270 --> 00:42:01,359 some thoughts about 1085 00:42:05,430 --> 00:42:03,280 who if psy 1086 00:42:08,069 --> 00:42:05,440 was well it's already proved in my 1087 00:42:09,510 --> 00:42:08,079 opinion and yours also but if it was 1088 00:42:12,710 --> 00:42:09,520 accepted 1089 00:42:15,670 --> 00:42:12,720 widely why in a wider sense by the 1090 00:42:18,870 --> 00:42:15,680 public at large who are the parties that 1091 00:42:21,510 --> 00:42:18,880 would stand to lose either materially or 1092 00:42:24,069 --> 00:42:21,520 in terms of prestige or whatever so we 1093 00:42:26,470 --> 00:42:24,079 would just conjecture that perhaps those 1094 00:42:28,790 --> 00:42:26,480 are the parties who are resisting it 1095 00:42:30,870 --> 00:42:28,800 most so that's my question 1096 00:42:32,870 --> 00:42:30,880 yeah um well that's a very interesting 1097 00:42:34,790 --> 00:42:32,880 question um i mean 1098 00:42:37,270 --> 00:42:34,800 right off the bat in my 1099 00:42:39,190 --> 00:42:37,280 opinion i think that uh 1100 00:42:41,190 --> 00:42:39,200 you know there are a lot of scientists 1101 00:42:43,910 --> 00:42:41,200 uh let's say 1102 00:42:47,270 --> 00:42:43,920 many of whom are very prestigious um 1103 00:42:49,270 --> 00:42:47,280 have uh kind of uh staked a lot on the 1104 00:42:51,109 --> 00:42:49,280 fact that psy is kind of nonsense so you 1105 00:42:52,630 --> 00:42:51,119 know they maybe they would be 1106 00:42:55,109 --> 00:42:52,640 viewed as being sort of on the wrong 1107 00:42:57,349 --> 00:42:55,119 side of history or maybe 1108 00:42:59,910 --> 00:42:57,359 um you know just sort of maybe their 1109 00:43:01,750 --> 00:42:59,920 prestige would lose um 1110 00:43:05,190 --> 00:43:01,760 i i think this is a very interesting 1111 00:43:07,910 --> 00:43:05,200 question um in the sense that um it does 1112 00:43:10,069 --> 00:43:07,920 seem like there's kind of a resistance 1113 00:43:12,069 --> 00:43:10,079 that is um 1114 00:43:14,630 --> 00:43:12,079 that seems to be beyond what you would 1115 00:43:17,190 --> 00:43:14,640 normally think of is rational in a way 1116 00:43:19,109 --> 00:43:17,200 that's that's i mean you often when you 1117 00:43:21,190 --> 00:43:19,119 you you you see some of the arguments 1118 00:43:23,109 --> 00:43:21,200 made by skeptics you feel like they're 1119 00:43:24,950 --> 00:43:23,119 it's almost like they're willfully 1120 00:43:27,589 --> 00:43:24,960 ignoring 1121 00:43:30,790 --> 00:43:27,599 very important pieces of the data 1122 00:43:34,309 --> 00:43:30,800 and so um i remember uh a little while 1123 00:43:37,430 --> 00:43:34,319 ago i read uh stephen pinker's um 1124 00:43:40,309 --> 00:43:37,440 recent book um it's called forgot what 1125 00:43:42,150 --> 00:43:40,319 it's called enlightenment and he he 1126 00:43:44,230 --> 00:43:42,160 actually sort of mentions its science 1127 00:43:46,150 --> 00:43:44,240 passing basically just says well you 1128 00:43:48,550 --> 00:43:46,160 know this stuff is weird and that's all 1129 00:43:50,470 --> 00:43:48,560 he says he doesn't engage with the data 1130 00:43:52,230 --> 00:43:50,480 doesn't really even you know kind of 1131 00:43:54,550 --> 00:43:52,240 bring up any arguments at all and here's 1132 00:43:55,430 --> 00:43:54,560 a he's written a huge book that's all 1133 00:43:57,030 --> 00:43:55,440 about 1134 00:43:59,910 --> 00:43:57,040 the the importance of taking science 1135 00:44:01,109 --> 00:43:59,920 seriously so it's a very sort of like 1136 00:44:03,349 --> 00:44:01,119 strange 1137 00:44:04,950 --> 00:44:03,359 kind of thing and in my own theory if 1138 00:44:07,589 --> 00:44:04,960 you will it's not really a conspiracy 1139 00:44:09,349 --> 00:44:07,599 theory but i think the way that a lot of 1140 00:44:11,190 --> 00:44:09,359 academia and 1141 00:44:12,870 --> 00:44:11,200 prestigious universities work that it's 1142 00:44:16,790 --> 00:44:12,880 very important that they maintain their 1143 00:44:18,950 --> 00:44:16,800 brand okay so harvard um princeton all 1144 00:44:20,550 --> 00:44:18,960 these very prestigious schools a lot of 1145 00:44:23,430 --> 00:44:20,560 what i mean if you think if you look at 1146 00:44:25,030 --> 00:44:23,440 the tuition and the and the grants that 1147 00:44:27,430 --> 00:44:25,040 they sort of bring in 1148 00:44:29,910 --> 00:44:27,440 huge sums of money and that and and that 1149 00:44:33,109 --> 00:44:29,920 in large part is due to the main the 1150 00:44:34,630 --> 00:44:33,119 ability to maintain a kind of brand that 1151 00:44:35,510 --> 00:44:34,640 science is real 1152 00:44:37,990 --> 00:44:35,520 and 1153 00:44:40,069 --> 00:44:38,000 as a product of history probably more 1154 00:44:41,510 --> 00:44:40,079 than anything else psy just simply has 1155 00:44:44,150 --> 00:44:41,520 the wrong brand 1156 00:44:46,309 --> 00:44:44,160 it's associated with um you know maybe 1157 00:44:48,790 --> 00:44:46,319 the supernatural in its history and 1158 00:44:51,910 --> 00:44:48,800 perhaps to some degree even to the 1159 00:44:55,190 --> 00:44:51,920 present day so that means that any 1160 00:44:58,710 --> 00:44:55,200 individual university that sanctions um 1161 00:45:01,109 --> 00:44:58,720 research into psy has a tendency for it 1162 00:45:02,710 --> 00:45:01,119 to to be looked at for the other 1163 00:45:04,630 --> 00:45:02,720 various kinds of 1164 00:45:07,430 --> 00:45:04,640 of of of uh 1165 00:45:09,430 --> 00:45:07,440 of of institutions is having is sort of 1166 00:45:11,030 --> 00:45:09,440 maybe damaging their brand or that is 1167 00:45:13,030 --> 00:45:11,040 they i think that they would they would 1168 00:45:15,030 --> 00:45:13,040 see themselves as risking damaging their 1169 00:45:17,030 --> 00:45:15,040 brand and remember their brand 1170 00:45:19,030 --> 00:45:17,040 is crucial in 1171 00:45:20,390 --> 00:45:19,040 in terms of getting tuition and grant 1172 00:45:22,309 --> 00:45:20,400 money and 1173 00:45:24,950 --> 00:45:22,319 and you know really really really very 1174 00:45:26,470 --> 00:45:24,960 large sums of money so i think that this 1175 00:45:28,870 --> 00:45:26,480 sort of like problem that the 1176 00:45:30,950 --> 00:45:28,880 universities have they have to i mean 1177 00:45:34,309 --> 00:45:30,960 certain types of research of course are 1178 00:45:36,390 --> 00:45:34,319 very important but questionable research 1179 00:45:37,270 --> 00:45:36,400 there's a real risk so i think in my 1180 00:45:38,950 --> 00:45:37,280 view 1181 00:45:42,230 --> 00:45:38,960 i wouldn't characterize it as a 1182 00:45:43,990 --> 00:45:42,240 conspiracy theory more of a kind of way 1183 00:45:45,750 --> 00:45:44,000 that um 1184 00:45:47,430 --> 00:45:45,760 that the way that 1185 00:45:49,589 --> 00:45:47,440 unfortunately the university 1186 00:45:53,190 --> 00:45:49,599 universities have a tendency to depend 1187 00:45:54,950 --> 00:45:53,200 too strongly on a kind of vision of 1188 00:45:57,109 --> 00:45:54,960 science and what science is and what 1189 00:45:59,589 --> 00:45:57,119 it's not being done and if the world 1190 00:46:00,390 --> 00:45:59,599 doesn't really fit into those boxes 1191 00:46:02,230 --> 00:46:00,400 um 1192 00:46:05,030 --> 00:46:02,240 then you know it's it's there's there's 1193 00:46:07,030 --> 00:46:05,040 a lot of resistance um so anyway that's 1194 00:46:09,109 --> 00:46:07,040 that's my own conjecture 1195 00:46:11,030 --> 00:46:09,119 um you know i certainly welcome other 1196 00:46:13,430 --> 00:46:11,040 people's opinions as well 1197 00:46:15,190 --> 00:46:13,440 but might just add just a couple of 1198 00:46:17,670 --> 00:46:15,200 garments so thank you very much for your 1199 00:46:19,589 --> 00:46:17,680 answer i would just want to add and i 1200 00:46:22,470 --> 00:46:19,599 don't know if you'll agree or not but in 1201 00:46:24,230 --> 00:46:22,480 addition to everything you said i 1202 00:46:25,829 --> 00:46:24,240 so that you know they have this box in 1203 00:46:28,550 --> 00:46:25,839 which they fit science and the world and 1204 00:46:30,870 --> 00:46:28,560 so forth i think in this particular case 1205 00:46:33,349 --> 00:46:30,880 it also threatens the box into which 1206 00:46:35,109 --> 00:46:33,359 they fit religion so they put religion 1207 00:46:37,109 --> 00:46:35,119 in a box where it's you know it's just 1208 00:46:39,589 --> 00:46:37,119 in your mind and there's a god in your 1209 00:46:42,430 --> 00:46:39,599 mind and you talk to the god but this 1210 00:46:45,990 --> 00:46:42,440 would tend to give a different 1211 00:46:47,910 --> 00:46:46,000 explanation for to spirituality so that 1212 00:46:50,550 --> 00:46:47,920 even the box in which they want to keep 1213 00:46:52,870 --> 00:46:50,560 religion is threatened and the people 1214 00:46:55,670 --> 00:46:52,880 who religious people you know like some 1215 00:46:58,630 --> 00:46:55,680 huge big catholic university or whatever 1216 00:47:01,670 --> 00:46:58,640 would not want to invest in this kind of 1217 00:47:03,910 --> 00:47:01,680 research because again it shakes where 1218 00:47:06,710 --> 00:47:03,920 they want religion to be as opposed to 1219 00:47:08,230 --> 00:47:06,720 this newer view so anyway just 1220 00:47:10,630 --> 00:47:08,240 yeah you know 1221 00:47:12,390 --> 00:47:10,640 i've heard other parapsychologists who 1222 00:47:14,309 --> 00:47:12,400 who talk about this problem and they 1223 00:47:16,630 --> 00:47:14,319 probably would would maybe agree with 1224 00:47:17,349 --> 00:47:16,640 you more than me i think they they feel 1225 00:47:19,430 --> 00:47:17,359 that 1226 00:47:20,390 --> 00:47:19,440 this sort of research does in some ways 1227 00:47:22,470 --> 00:47:20,400 threaten 1228 00:47:25,109 --> 00:47:22,480 people with strong religious convictions 1229 00:47:27,270 --> 00:47:25,119 and some of those are large donors or 1230 00:47:29,589 --> 00:47:27,280 they're very influential politically you 1231 00:47:32,630 --> 00:47:29,599 know so for i think that there are some 1232 00:47:34,710 --> 00:47:32,640 say uh um side researchers who believe 1233 00:47:35,750 --> 00:47:34,720 that the government funding of remote 1234 00:47:37,990 --> 00:47:35,760 viewing 1235 00:47:39,829 --> 00:47:38,000 was in some ways cut off because some of 1236 00:47:42,309 --> 00:47:39,839 the people in the military were 1237 00:47:44,230 --> 00:47:42,319 sensitive to were actually kind of had 1238 00:47:47,430 --> 00:47:44,240 certain religious beliefs or they were 1239 00:47:48,870 --> 00:47:47,440 sensitive to senators who had um strong 1240 00:47:50,150 --> 00:47:48,880 religious beliefs so i think that the 1241 00:47:53,750 --> 00:47:50,160 religion 1242 00:47:55,670 --> 00:47:53,760 aspect of it is also a major factor um i 1243 00:47:57,829 --> 00:47:55,680 tend to lean more toward the other but i 1244 00:48:00,230 --> 00:47:57,839 but other i think parapsychologists 1245 00:48:01,990 --> 00:48:00,240 probably would say maybe the religion 1246 00:48:04,549 --> 00:48:02,000 plays that plays a very strong if not 1247 00:48:06,549 --> 00:48:04,559 the strongest role 1248 00:48:08,390 --> 00:48:06,559 okay uh thank you for your your 1249 00:48:10,710 --> 00:48:08,400 questions and comments newsie um we're 1250 00:48:12,390 --> 00:48:10,720 gonna end with um a question from york i 1251 00:48:13,910 --> 00:48:12,400 think this is a good closer uh and the 1252 00:48:15,750 --> 00:48:13,920 question is does this talk have a 1253 00:48:17,589 --> 00:48:15,760 bibliography or reference list that 1254 00:48:19,670 --> 00:48:17,599 could be sent out by mail to interested 1255 00:48:21,910 --> 00:48:19,680 parties 1256 00:48:24,069 --> 00:48:21,920 i don't have it right now but i have but 1257 00:48:26,790 --> 00:48:24,079 i am working on a paper and so i'll be 1258 00:48:29,829 --> 00:48:26,800 happy to send you um the paper version 1259 00:48:31,510 --> 00:48:29,839 or just the uh the list of uh references 1260 00:48:33,270 --> 00:48:31,520 when that's done and i should i should 1261 00:48:35,030 --> 00:48:33,280 have something like that done in about 1262 00:48:37,430 --> 00:48:35,040 you know a week or two so it won't be 1263 00:48:39,270 --> 00:48:37,440 very long so i'd be happy to send 1264 00:48:41,589 --> 00:48:39,280 um either the paper or just the